HPU Poll: North Carolina Presidential and Gubernatorial Primaries

Presidential generic ballot shows 47% of likely and self-reported primary voters prefer a GOP candidate, 41% prefer a Democrat among N.C. likely and self-reported primary voters.

HIGH POINT, N.C., March 1, 2024 – A new High Point University Poll finds North Carolinians likely to vote or those reporting they voted in the 2024 North Carolina Republican primary for president prefer former President Donald Trump (69%) to other candidates on the ballot.

Note: In this press release, we report a combination of voters we determined are most likely to vote in the primary elections and respondents who said they had already voted in the primaries. We refer to this combined sample as likely and self-reported primary voters.

Nikki Haley received 24% of the vote among likely and self-reported Republican primary voters. Other candidates on the ballot had 3% support or less and have already suspended their campaigns but remain on the ballot.

President Joe Biden has no opposition on the ballot, and likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters give him 87% of the vote. Thirteen percent of the likely and self-identified primary voters chose “No Preference.”

North Carolina Primaries for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General

In the Democratic primary for governor of North Carolina, Josh Stein has 57% of the vote among likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters. He is followed by Michael R. Morgan (14%), Gary Foxx (10%), Chrelle Booker (10%) and Marcus Williams (9%).

In the Republican primary for governor, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has 51% support among these likely and self-reported Republican primary voters. Bill Graham and Dale Folwell have less support with these voters, receiving 33% and 17% of the vote, respectively.

In the race for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor of North Carolina, Rachel Hunt has the most support (61%) among likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters. She is followed by Mark H. Robinson (24%) and Ben Clark (14%).

The Republican nomination battle for lieutenant governor of North Carolina appears to be divided among several candidates. The poll finds Jim O’Neill has support from 27% of these likely and self-reported Republican primary voters. The rest of the respondents preferred Sam Page (13%), Jeffrey Elmore (11%), Seth Woodall (11%), Deanna Ballard (10%), Hal Weatherman (7%) or Peter Boykin (7%). Less than 5% of the vote was for Marlenis Hernandez Novoa (4%), Allen Mashburn (4%), Ernest T. Reeves (4%) and Rivera Douthit (2%).

There is no clear front-runner in the Democratic primary for attorney general of North Carolina. Democratic likely and self-reported primary voters appear to be split between Jeff Jackson (36%), Tim Dunn (33%) and Satana Deberry (31%).

General Election Generic Ballots for President and U.S. Congress

When asked about their choices for president of the United States, 47% of these likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate if the Nov. 5 election were held today, 41% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate and 4% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot. Another 8% said they were unsure.

When asked about their choices for U.S. Congress, 48% of these same likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today, 43% said they voted or were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate and 3% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

General Election Generic Ballots for N.C. Governor, Attorney General, General Assembly and Supreme Court

When asked about their choices for North Carolina governor, 46% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 45% likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate, and 2% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina attorney general, 44% of these likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today, 43% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic candidate, and 4% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina house of representatives, 45% of these likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 44% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, and 2% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina senate, registered voters gave similar responses about the votes they already had cast or intended to cast. In all, 45% of these likely and self-reported primary voters said they voted or would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today, 43% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic candidate, and 3% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina supreme court justice, 44% of these likely and self-reported primary voters said they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 42% said they voted or would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, and 3% said they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

Approval Ratings for U.S. and N.C. Government Officials

Likely and self-reported primary voters in the N.C. March primary gave President Biden a job approval rating of 38%, and 68% said that the country is on the wrong track. More than half of these same voters in North Carolina disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress (65%) is doing.

Only 36% of the likely and self-reported primary voters said they approved of how the U.S. supreme court was doing its job, and 39% of them approve of how the N.C. supreme court is doing its job. About the same proportion of these voters approved of the job the N.C. general assembly (39%) is doing.

“There are some clear front-runners in top of the ballot races, and there is still some uncertainty about some of the lower profile races,” said Dr. Martin Kifer, associate professor of political science and director of the HPU Poll. “We will see how all of this plays out when they count the votes on the primary Election Day. And there are some indicators in this poll that we could have some close statewide results in November.”

Note: In this poll, respondents were first screened to see if they identified themselves as registered. Then they were further screened to determine their likelihood of voting in the March 5 North Carolina primary. Voters who passed the likely voter screen or indicated they had already voted in the primary were included in the results reported in this release.  There were total of 753 likely voters who passed the screen of which 620 were likely to vote and 133 indicated they had already voted. The memo accompanying this release includes findings for the 1,215 self-identified registered voters. 

Likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters – U.S. President (February 2024)

If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out a Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Democratic Primary for President of the United States, who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

[CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 326 responses

Likely and self-reported Republican primary voters – U.S. President (February 2024)

If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out a Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Republican Primary for President of the United States, who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

[CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 394 responses

Likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters – Democratic N.C. Governor Primary (February 2024)

If the Democratic Primary for Governor of North Carolina were today, and you were filling out a Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Democratic Primary for Governor of North Carolina, who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

[CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 322 responses

 Self-identified registered voters and likely and actual voters – Republican N.C. Governor Primary (February 2024)

 If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out a Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor, who did you vote for?

[ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

[CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT] 

N = 394 responses

Likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters – Democratic N.C. Lieutenant Governor Primary (February 2024)

 If the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina were today, and you were filling out a Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina, who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

[CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 321 responses

Likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters – Republican N.C. Lieutenant Governor Primary (February 2024)

 If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor were today, and you were filling out a Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Republican Primary for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor, who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY]

 [CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 386 responses

 Likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters – Democratic N.C. Attorney General Primary (February 2024)

 If the Democratic Primary for Attorney General of North Carolina were today, and you were filling out a Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO CONFIRMED THEY INTEND TO VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

When you voted early in the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Attorney General who did you vote for? [ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY]

 [CANDIDATES ARE LISTED IN THE ORDER THEY APPEAR ON THE BALLOT]

N = 317 responses

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Country Direction (February 2024)

Do you think things in this country [are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track]?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Presidential Approval (February 2024) 

 Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Approval of the U.S. Congress (February 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Congress is handling its job?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Approval of the N.C. General Assembly (February 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the North Carolina General Assembly is handling its job?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Approval of the N.C. Supreme Court (February 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the North Carolina Supreme Court is handling its job?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – Approval of the U.S. Supreme Court (February 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – U.S. Congress Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for U.S. House of Representatives in your district?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – N.C. Governor Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for North Carolina Governor were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for North Carolina Governor?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – U.S. President Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for President of the United States were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for U.S. President?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – N.C. Attorney General Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for the North Carolina Attorney General were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for NC Senate in your district?

 Likely and self-reported primary voters – N.C. House of Representatives Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for the North Carolina House of Representatives in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for NC House in your district?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – N.C. Senate Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the elections for the North Carolina Senate in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for NC Senate in your district?

Likely and self-reported primary voters – N.C. Supreme Court Generic Ballot (February 2024)

If the election for the North Carolina Supreme Court justice was being held today, would you vote for the “Republican Party’s candidate” or the “Democratic Party’s candidate” for North Carolina Supreme Court?

HPU Poll 101 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Feb. 16 through Feb. 23 as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by Dynata. Dynata sent invitations to its panel of N.C. respondents and the SRC collected 1,215 responses on its Qualtrics platform. Respondents were asked two screening questions concerning their voter registration status. That group is considered to be self-reported registered voters.  For the likely and self-reported primary voter sample, the respondents were asked an additional series of questions to determine whether they had voted or were likely to vote in the 2024 North Carolina primary elections. All screening questions are reported in the memo accompanying this release (https://testwww.highpoint.edu/src/hpupoll/ ). The SRC did all data analysis. The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. The poll interviewed a total of 1215 self-identified registered voters. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 2.8 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.2 (based on the weighting). For the likely and self-reported primary voters (n = 753), that credibility interval is 3.9 percentage points. For likely and self-reported primary voters within Democratic and Republican primaries, the credibility interval is 6 percentage points. The data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race, ethnicity and education based on North Carolina State Board of Elections numbers for registered voters (https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-registration-data) and archival HPU Poll data on registered voters. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.

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Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald is the associate director of the HPU Poll.