HPU Poll: Presidential Race Remains Close for North Carolina Voters
HIGH POINT, N.C., Oct. 3, 2024 – In a new High Point University Poll, North Carolina voters remain deeply divided in the presidential race, making the campaign a toss-up here in North Carolina.
A Tie in the Presidential Campaign
In the presidential race, Republican Donald Trump receives 48% of the vote from North Carolina likely voters while Democrat Kamala Harris also gets 48%.
In the race for North Carolina Governor, Democrat Josh Stein receives 51% of the vote from likely voters while Republican Mark Robinson gets 34%.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, 48% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their Congressional District. Meanwhile, 44% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.
Ties in North Carolina House and Senate Races
In the North Carolina House of Representatives race, 47% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their House District. Meanwhile, 47% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.
In the North Carolina Senate race, 47% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their Senate District. Meanwhile, 47% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.
Results including a memo with results for self-identified registered and likely voters are available here: https://testwww.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/106memoPOLS.pdf
HPU Poll 106 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Sept. 20 through Sept. 29, as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by Dynata. Dynata sent invitations to its panel of N.C. respondents and the SRC collected 1,001 responses (an all-adults sample) on its Qualtrics platform. All respondents were asked two screening questions to identify them as registered voters. They were also asked an additional battery of questions (listed in the memo for this study) to determine which respondents qualified as likely voters. A total of 814 respondents identified themselves as registered voters. A total of 589 respondents were considered likely voters. The SRC did all data analysis. The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, for the registered voters, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.4 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.1 (based on the weighting). For the likely voter sample, the credibility interval is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (4 for an approximated margin of error and a design effect of 1.5). The all-adults data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race, ethnicity, and education based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. The sample was also weighted using a past presidential vote questionnaire item and the North Carolina 2020 presidential election results (North Carolina State Board of Elections https://www.ncsbe.gov/ ). The High Point University Survey Research Center (SRC) produces weights through an iterative procedure within SPSS. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls.
Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.
The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.